January 2021 Unemployment Data–the Full Count
The BLS estimates that official unemployment this month may be understated by up to 0.6%, reflecting measurement problems.
(U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS)
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT: 6.3%* [Analyses]
| White |
5.7%
|
| African American |
9.2%
|
| Hispanic |
8.6%
|
| Asian¹ |
6.6%
|
| Persons with a disability¹ |
12.0%
|
| Men 20 years and over |
6.0%
|
| Women 20 years and over |
6.0%
|
| Teens (16-19 years) |
14.8%
|
| Black teens |
17.3%
|
| Officially unemployed |
10.1 million
|
HIDDEN UNEMPLOYMENT
| Working part-time because can’t find a full-time job: | 6.0 million |
| People who want jobs but are not looking so are not counted in official statistics (of which about 1.9 million¹ searched for work during the prior 12 months and were available for work during the reference week.) | 7.0 million |
Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf Read p. 5, Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on December 2020 Establishment and Household Survey Data for problems. See also Current Employment Statistics–Highlights. For BLS State and area data, see Geographic Information and State Unemployment Summary and Current Unemployment Rates for States and Historical Highs/Lows, Seasonally Adjusted
*See Uncommon Sense #4 and How the BLS Measures Unemployment for an explanation of the unemployment measures.
¹Not seasonally adjusted. Marginally Attached workers want work and are available, have looked for work within the last 12 months, but not during “the 4 weeks preceding the survey.”
In addition, millions more were working full-time, year-round, yet earned less than the official poverty level for a family of four. In 2019, that number was 16.7 million, 14.0 percent of full-time, full-year workers (estimated from Current Population Survey, Bur. of the Census). The poverty threshold in 2019 was $26,172 for a family of four.
In December 2020, the latest month available, the number of job openings was 6.6 million. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, February 9, 2021. Thus there are 3.5 job-wanters for each available job. See also JOLTS Experimental State Estimates
Unemployment is measured as a percent of the civilian non-institutional labor force. The unemployed are those who have not worked at least an hour during the week of record, when a sample survey is taken, and who have looked for work during that month. The labor force includes those 16 years old and older who are either working or unemployed. It excludes those in institutions, like nursing homes or prisons, and those in the military. The latter two groups would in all likelihood experience high unemployment. Merely adding the incarcerated would add about one percentage point to the unemployment rate.
The Economic Policy Institute, Heidi Sheirholz, published an unemployment report today, Jan. 5, concluding that 15.0% are unemployed or underemployed. — https://www.epi.org/blog/the-economy-trump-handed-off-to-president-biden-25-5-million-workers-15-0-of-the-workforce-hit-by-the-coronavirus-crisis-in-january/ —
The differences are too difficult for me to interpret, but they are significant. Sheirholz has a work force of 170 million, which is more accurate than the 167 million in the njfac rate. But it’s such a complex thing! I also read that 40 million people received some level of unemployment benefits, 25% of workers (from David Dayan at prospect.org, today, quoting a U.S. Congress woman.